Friday May 11, 2012


Saturday's FA Trophy final at Wembley is the sixth final back at the National Stadium since its renovation, it's also the sixth time that two clubs from the top tier of Non-League football will face-off for the prestigious prize.
The carrot of a final under the arch has all but eliminated the chance of any team outside of the Blue Square Bet Premier of winning the competition, although one finalist did have to see off a Ryman Premier team in a two-legged semi-final.
That was Justin Edinburgh's Newport County who apart from having a tricky First Round tie against Forest Green Rovers have had a reasonably easy route to the final. They will face York City who will be appearing at Wembley twice in the space of eight days having gone set up a promotion final showdown against Luton Town a week on Sunday.

That big game on the horizon could threaten to take the gloss off of this one with promotion meaning far more to ex-Football League club City . Boss Gary Mills will have to think hard about which players can be risked before they resume rivalry with the Hatters for a place in League 2. For that reason we've been happy to offer a stand-out price of 8/13 for the Minstermen to win by any means. Newport County are our 5/4 outsiders. The 90 minute match betting has York priced at 11/10 to get the job done in normal-time, Newport County are 2/1 and the draw is priced at 12/5. Any draw would of course require extra-time and maybe a penalty shoot-out. Newport are 14/1 to win in extra-time and 11/1 to win a shoot-out, York are 10/1 for an extra-time win and also 11/1 to win via spot-kicks.

If Mills does rest some of his star players with one eye on the Blue Square Bet Premier promotion final then prices could change based on the line-ups just before kick-off.
Although the two sides finished a whopping 15 places and 36 points apart in the final BSBP table it was lower placed County who came out on top in their two league matches. Drawing 1-1 on their trip to Bootham Crescent and winning 2-1 at home as they successfully avoided relegation. Edinburgh took over during the season and their record since he arrived in early-October places them just below mid-table as the former Tottenham defender got to grips with the squad he inherited.
Whilst York have been embroiled in a tough play-off semi-final over two legs against Mansfield Town, Newport have had two weeks to prepare for this big fixture since their final league game. That could put the Welsh team in the driving seat here and whilst I think that the game could end in a draw I expect them to prevail in extra-time at a nice price.


Alan's Best Bets for Newport County v York City:
DRAW - Newport County v York City
1-1  DRAW - Correct Score

You can follow me on Twitter - @AlanBlueSquare

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