Blue Square Bet Premier Weekend Betting Preview
Thursday Sep 22, 2011
by Alan Alger from Blue Square
Luton Town's draw at Bath City in midweek was their 100th regular season game in the Blue Square Bet Premier since their relegation from League 2.
Once again they failed to deliver for punters who had backed them at an odds-on price. In fact The Hatters have been odds-on to win 85 of those 100 games since August 2009. From those 85 matches Luton won 52 times, meaning they have failed to win 33 times when judged to have a better than 50% chance of winning by the market.
Their 100 game record features 54 wins, which reveals that Luton have only won twice when an odds-against price (15 matches). The figures are extremely revealing and produce the following conclusion for people looking to make money from their future games. Gary Brabin's team are to be avoided when they are shorter than 4/6 but also when they face difficult games and the market prices them at odds-against.
Despite the draw at Twerton Park, Luton climbed to the top of the table and are still priced as the 9/4 favourites for the title so it's not all bad news. They also remain the only unbeaten team in the division and receive a special quote from us of 100/1 to carry that record through the whole season.
The leaders face a stern test of that unbeaten record when they travel to Bootham Crescent on Saturday to face old foes York City.
With both sides expected to fight out the play-off places at the very least, this game could also go a long way to revealing their title chances. An away win is priced at 6/4, which does not look favourable according to the 100 game stats above. York are a fraction higher in the prices at 8/5, but have arguably been better away from home this season.
A draw price of 9/4 looks the best play. It appears that second placed Wrexham had the chances to win three games on Tuesday night, let alone the one they drew against Southport. That's now three games without a win for Dean Saunders' side and next up they visit Grimsby Town.
The Mariners have won three of their last four games and have climbed to 16th spot in the standings. We cannot split these two and go 6/4 for both a home win and an away win, again the draw looks more likely at 23/10.
Like Wrexham, Gateshead were another team that started the season well, and like the Welsh side they are also winless in their last three games. Ian Bogie's team travel to Kingfield to take on Hayes & Yeading United and they are ranked the favourites for an away win at 11/10.
Fleetwood Town joined Luton, Wrexham and Gateshead on 20 points with a midweek win over Kidderminster Harriers. The Cod Army won that ill-tempered game 5-2 and it was their fourth game in a row that had featured four or more goals.
Micky Mellon's team take on AFC Telford at Highbury this weekend without the inspirational Jamie Vardy - who will be starting a suspension for a dismissal in that game against Harriers. For that reason a home win, although extremely likely, offers punters very little margin for error at 1/2.
Telford halted Mansfield's five game winning streak with a 1-1 draw at Field Mill on Tuesday. The Stags succumbing to a late equaliser after being in control for the majority of the game.
Paul Cox's team are the 4/5 favourites to get back to winning ways in their home fixture with Kidderminster Harriers. An away win for Steve Burr's team is offered at 11/4. Braintree Town have matched Mansfield's total of 19 points to sit sixth in the table. Alan Devonshire's Essex outfit take a four game winning run to Southport - who have also been in good form. The Sandgrounders do have injury concerns and a key suspension to captain Alan Moogan though, enough to make a bet on the visitors very tempting at 8/5.
Stockport County have drawn all five of their away games at the start of this season by a scoreline of 1-1. That result has also cropped up on two occasions in their home matches.
A repeat of that score is just 5/1 when County go on the search for what would be just their third win of the season, at Tamworth. Didi Hamann's team were unlucky in their last game at Newport by all accounts, but will need to be on their game again at a price of 7/4 against Marcus Law's side. Tamworth are the narrow 7/5 favourites to take their tally to a very healthy looking 20 points. Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last six matches and have conceded just three goals in their last 500 minutes of BSBP football.
Darlington are their visitors on Saturday and The U's are 13/10 favourites to take all three points.
Lincoln City gave fans at Sincil Bank their first home win since March with a 1-0 success over high-flying Gateshead in midweek. Their slow start to the season means they can be no higher than 18th on Sunday morning, even if they do cement that performance with another win. Forest Green, who won by one own-goal to nil at Tamworth on Tuesday, are the weekend visitors.
The Imps are favourites at 11/10 to continue on the right track, but a case can certainly be made for Dave Hockaday's men who remain unbeaten away from home and look good value at a price of 2/1. Barrow nearly overcame a long list of absentees and an early sending-off to grab a point away at Alfreton in midweek.
The Bluebirds took an early lead but were pegged back and then eventually lost 2-1 in injury-time as the extra man proved telling for Nicky Law's side.
A patched up Barrow eleven will visit Newport on Saturday to face the 23rd placed team. County are without a win since beating Hayes & Yeading in their second game and were apparently fortunate to get a point at home to Stockport last time out. Despite the absentees an away win looks worth chancing at an inflated 5/2.
James Ellison's 91st minute goal secured Alfreton Town's first home win of the season in midweek and they are 11/8 to double up at home to Ebbsfleet on Saturday. The Kent side need to arrest a four game winless run and are offered at 8/5 to do so.
Bath City held on to a point against title favourites Luton Town on Tuesday after being reduced to nine men. Suspensions may play a part when they face Kettering this weekend and The Poppies do have the firepower to keep Adie Britton's team waiting for that elusive first victory. An away win is advised at 2/1.
Alan's Best Weekend Treble:
BRAINTREE TOWN to win at Southport
FOREST GREEN ROVERS to win at Lincoln City
KETTERING TOWN to win at Bath City
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