BLUE SQUARE BET PREMIER LIVE MATCH BETTING PREVIEW
Monday Apr 9, 2012
BY ALAN ALGER FROM BLUE SQUARE
FLEETWOOD TOWN v WREXHAM
Billed as a title decider as early as the turn of the year, this match now represents an opportunity for only one team to take the Blue Square Bet Premier trophy.
A win for Fleetwood Town would confirm them as champions of the division, with any other result surely just delaying the same outcome.
Wrexham have fought valiantly under difficult circumstances throughout the campaign, but would obviously like to finish up with more than a sense of pride. Promotion, that some would say is still fully deserved, will surely have to come via the play-offs.
The Red Dragons are at least guaranteed second spot in the table and a tie against the fifth placed team if they don't win the title.
That includes important home advantage in the second leg. They must pick up their form though, starting with this big game at Highbury in front of the Premier Sports cameras. They have drifted to a price of 10/3 to pull off an away win after a run of results which has seen them win just once in four matches.
That has allowed Fleetwood to open up an 11-point gap at the top of the table. Breaking through the 100 point barrier with a win at York City on Saturday, Fleetwood prompted an early payout on our title market.
A run of 27 unbeaten games in the division sees them closing in on the record of 30 set by last season's champions Crawley Town. In doing so they would almost certainly break the record for points gained, 105, also set by the Red Devils. A home win which hands the title to Micky Mellon's team is priced at 8/11, the draw - which could delay celebrations until Friday's live game with Lincoln City - is priced at 5/2.
Whilst they are at the top of the table based on just home games, Fleetwood have failed to win seven of their 20 games on their own patch. They've also failed to win four of their nine games played against sides in the top six.
The last time the Cod Army failed to score in a league game was back in October. Their defence, which could have been considered a small weakness at the start of the season, has improved to concede just six goals in their last 11 games.
Wrexham's defence has wobbled of late, mainly due to injuries, and they haven't kept a clean-sheet in their last four matches. Andy Morrell's team have won half of their eight matches against teams in the top six, including a 2-0 win at the Racecourse Ground in the reverse of this fixture.
Wrexham away games are some of the lowest scoring in the division, making up an average of just 2.4 per game. In contrast Fleetwood's home games average over 3.3 per game, with 70% of them triggering a payout on the ‘over 2.5 goals' market. That eventuality is priced at 8/13 for this game, which is a fair reflection.
Richard Brodie has scored in each of Fleetwood's last two games, but both appearances came from the bench. He is 6/1 to hit the first goal of this match, but may not be on the pitch at the start so looks like a player to target with in-play betting on the ‘next scorer'.
Outstanding teammate Jamie Vardy is a clear 10/3 favourite to open the scoring and just 6/4 to score in any Fleetwood victory. All eyes will be on former Wrexham midfielder Lee Fowler who has been pulling the strings in the Fleetwood midfield since a winter switch between the two title rivals. Fowler is just 7/4 to pick up a booking in a potentially fiery battle in the middle of the park with his former teammates, and that could be a good bet.
Wrexham would be an incredible 19 points above Fleetwood on the table based on first half performances so it's worth speculating on a good start for the away side. A switch result on the ‘half-time/full-time' market will pay a generous 25/1 for Wrexham to be winning at the interval but Fleetwood coming back to take all three points.
Alan's Best Bets for Fleetwood Town v Wrexham:
JAMIE VARDY TO SCORE IN A FLEETWOOD WIN - Score/Win Double
LEE FOWLER TO BE BOOKED - Player Specials
WREXHAM HALF-TIME / FLEETWOOD TOWN FULL-TIME - HT/FT Double Result
Fleetwood Town v Wrexham is live on Premier Sports TV - Tuesday 10th April 7pm (7.30pm kick-off) - visit www.premiersports.tv for subscription details.
You can play your part in the commentary for this game! Contact commentators Steve Bower and Ian Snodin during the action to give your thoughts - email: firstname.lastname@example.org OR Twitter: @steveandsnods.
You can follow me on Twitter - @AlanBlueSquare