BLUE SQUARE BET PREMIER BOXING DAY BETTING PREVIEW
Thursday Dec 22, 2011
by Alan Alger from Blue Square
Wrexham will sit at the top of the Blue Square Bet Premier table on the morning of the Boxing Day fixtures.
Six of the last nine ‘Christmas Day leaders' of the division have gone on to win the title. Their title odds stand at 9/4 but the recent statistics suggest they should be more like 1/2. The reason they are such a big price is that they have favourites Fleetwood Town breathing down their necks.
The Cod Army are Evens to take the title and lie just four goals adrift of Wrexham on goal-difference.
The three ‘Christmas Day leaders' that failed to go on to win the title all occurred in the last six years and all failed by over 12 points by the final day. A unwanted second half to the season that Andy Morrell's team will be looking to avoid. The Red Dragons are the 8/11 favourites for their trip to AFC Telford United as they look to stay on top of the pile
The home side have only won one of their last 13 league games and make no appeal at 3/1.
Fleetwood take on old rivals Southport over the festive period and begin with a home game. Micky Mellon's team are the 4/6 favourites with an away win offered at 7/2. Southport's away form warrants a second look at that price although home advantage was key in the fixtures between these two sides in the Blue Square Bet North two seasons ago. Southport won their home game 5-0 and then lost 4-0 at Fleetwood six days later.
This season in Non-League's top-flight the fixture takes on added significance as the teams sit second and third in the table.
York City were second best for their home game with Kidderminster Harriers on Monday, suffering a 3-1 defeat in front on the TV cameras. Gary Mills' side are the 5/4 favourites for a difficult away trip to Mansfield Town as they look to put their title charge back on track.
A home win for The Stags is offered at 9/5. Luton Town are strong favourites to pick up six points over the Boxing Day and New Year fixtures as they have a double-header with crisis club Kettering Town.
The Hatters are 1/5 to get three points at Kenilworth Road in the first of those two matches. Kidderminster moved up to sixth place with that win at York and are odds-on at 20/21 for their home game with Forest Green.
The away side were in good form before successive home defeats, Newport in the FA Trophy and Lincoln in the league. That has pushed their price to 12/5 to bounce back at Aggborough.
Cambridge United's 2-0 defeat at Darlington last week was their fifth league game on the bounce without a win. That form has seen them drop to 7th in the table. The U's are 8/11 favourites to beat Braintree Town who returned to winning ways with a 2-1 home victory over Telford last Saturday, halting their own winless run of six matches.
Gateshead take on local rivals Darlington and are 10/11 to win their home game, which comes up first of the two fixtures. Darlington lost captain Ian Miller this week as their player exodus continues and they make no appeal at 11/4. Having already beaten Wrexham and Fleetwood at Holker Street, Barrow will not fear the visit of struggling Stockport. The Bluebirds are 8/11 favourites to win the game with Stockport offered at 7/2.
Elsewhere Tamworth will have to cope with suspensions picked up in their home defeat to Luton if they are to overcome an improving Alfreton team. Nicky Law's side are still second bottom in the table though despite an uplift in their form and Tamworth certainly look worth chancing at 15/8 for an away win.
Grimsby Town and Lincoln City will welcome bumper crowds for their head-to-head clashes. Home advantage in the first game goes to Lincoln City who are 5/4 to strike the first blow.
Hayes & Yeading United travel around the M25 to take on Ebbsfleet United. Ebbsfleet looking like worthy favourites at 10/11. Bath City venture over the border to Wales to take on Newport County. A home win for Justin Edinburgh's team is priced at 4/5.
Alan's Best Boxing Day Treble:
GATESHEAD to beat Darlington
EBBSFLEET UNITED to beat Hayes & Yeading United
WREXHAM to win at AFC Telford United
You can follow me on Twitter - @AlanBlueSquare