BLUE SQUARE BET PREMIER & FA TROPHY BETTING PREVIEW
Thursday Feb 23, 2012
BY ALAN ALGER FROM BLUE SQUARE
Barrow's fantastic home form was illustrated with their win over Luton Town in midweek. A result that has us pricing the Blue Square Bet Premier title market much nearer a two-horse race.
With Fleetwood Town and Wrexham both winning in midweek they were cut to 8/15 and 11/8 respectively.
Luton have been drifted to 16/1 with all other clubs removed from the market due to the gap between first and fourth extending to 19 points.
Barrow are now likely to keep their record of not losing at home to the champions in the league since they were promoted back to the division in the 2008/09 season.
The Bluebirds host Forest Green Rovers on Saturday and are the 6/5 favourites to maintain their position as the second best home team in the division. Visitors Rovers have a good away record though, with just three defeats on the road. They are 15/8 to win the game, with the draw offered at 23/10.
Leaders Fleetwood Town are the shortest priced favourites of the weekend at home to Alfreton Town. The Cod Army can be backed at 1/4 which can surely only appeal to accumulator punters. Alfreton are 8/1 to win the game but a better bet could be one that exploits the home side's leaky defence. ‘Both teams to score' is 4/6 and that looks a very good bet and has happened in 11 of Fleetwood's 17 home games.
Second -ced Wrexham travel to Stockport. An away win is favoured at 8/11 with a home win priced at 3/1. Stockport have just one point from a possible 24 against sides in the top five and you'd have to expect Andy Morrell's men to have too much for them.
Southport visit Ebbsfleet in a 2pm kick-off as they look to consolidate their play-off position. The Sandgrounders are clinging on to the final play-off spot with both Mansfield and Kidderminster poised to go above them if results work out on the day. Liam Watson's team are 8/5 to win in Kent. An Ebbsfleet victory is priced at 7/5, a victory which would almost certainly assure their safety in the division.
If Ebbsfleet do win then a Kidderminster success away at bottom club Bath City would take them into the play-off zone.
The Harriers are priced at 4/5 to inflict a defeat on The Romans that would leave them with a huge gap to make up in their fight for survival.
Mansfield Town could also move into fifth if both Ebbsfleet and Bath City do them a favour. The Stags are 8/13 favourites to win at home to Tamworth. A line of form from the past seven days could make Tamworth a value bet at 15/4. Marcus Law's team beat Newport in midweek who themselves beat Mansfield last weekend.
Braintree Town will be odds-on to maintain their position at the top of the second half of the table with a home win over Kettering Town.
With just one win in their last eight league matches Lincoln City need to improve before they get dragged back into a relegation scrap. David Holdsworth's side are the Evens favourites to win at home to AFC Telford United. The visitors can leapfrog them in the table with a win at 12/5.
It's quarter final weekend in the FA Trophy and six Blue Square Bet Premier teams make the line up along with Wealdstone from the Ryman Premier and Northwich Victoria from the EvoStik Northern Premier.
Those two sides are packaged at 8/1 under ‘Non Blue Square' team in our outright market for which team will win the competition.
Luton Town are the 3/1 favourites in the outright market and are 8/13 to beat Gateshead at Kenilworth Road in their ‘last eight' tie.
An away win is offered at 4/1 which could be a value price if Luton boss Gary Brabin decides to rest players.
The game of the round takes place at Blundell Park where fifth and sixth in the Blue Square Bet Premier face-off for a place in the semi-finals. Grimsby are the 11/10 favourites to beat York City who themselves are priced at 21/10.
Cambridge United are the 7/2 second favourites to win the FA Trophy as they are a short price in their quarter-final at home to Wealdstone. The U's are 1/3 to win the tie on the day. Newport County are a best price of 11/10 to win their difficult match away at Northwich Victoria.
Alan's Best Weekend Treble:
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - Fleetwood Town v Alfreton Town
BARROW to beat Forest Green Rovers
WREXHAM to win at Stockport
You can follow me on Twitter - @AlanBlueSquare